Estimates of Gross Domestic Product for the Second Quarter (July-September) of 2016-17

 

            The Central Statistics Office (CSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation has released the estimates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the second quarter (July-September) Q2 of 2016-17, both at constant (2011-12) and current prices, alongwith the corresponding quarterly estimates of expenditure components of the GDP.

 

2.          The details of the estimates GDP for Q2 of 2016-17 are presented below.

 

I.             ESTIMATES OF GVA BY ECONOMIC ACTIVITY

 

(a)   At constant(2011-2012)prices

 

3.         GDP at constant (2011-12) prices in Q2 of 2016-17 is estimated at ` 29.63 lakh crore, as against `27.62 lakh crore in Q2 of 2015-16, showing a growth rate of 7.3 percent.  Quarterly GVA at Basic Price at constant (2011-12) prices for Q2 of 2016-17 is estimated at `27.33 lakh crore, as against `25.52 lakh crore in Q2 of 2015-16, showing a growth rate of 7.1 per cent over the corresponding quarter of previous year.

 

4.         The economic activities which registered growth of over 7.0 percent in Q2 of 2016-17 over Q2 of 2015-16 are ‘Public administration, defence & other services’, 'financial, insurance, real estate and professional services', ‘manufacturing’ and ‘trade, hotels and transport & communication and services related to broadcasting’. The growth in the ‘agriculture, forestry and fishing’, ‘mining and quarrying’, ‘electricity, gas, water supply & other utility services,  and ‘construction’   is estimated to be 3.3 per cent,  (-)1.5 percent, 3.5 per cent and  3.5 per cent  respectively, during this period.

 

5. Industry analysis

            The second quarter estimates are based on agricultural production during Kharif season of 2016-17 obtained from the Ministry of Agriculture, Department of Agriculture & Cooperation(DAC), abridged financial results  of  listed companies from BSE/NSE, Index of Industrial Production (IIP), monthly accounts of Union Government Expenditure maintained by Controller General of Accounts (CGA) and of State Government expenditure maintained by Comptroller and Auditor General of India (CAG) for the period July-September 2016. Performance of key indicators of sectors like transport including railways, road, air and water transport etc., communication, banking and insurance during the period July-September 2016 have been taken into account while compiling the estimates. Performance of the corporate sector during July-September 2016 based on data received from BSE/NSE have been taken into account.  Estimated growth in the indicator compiled on the basis of employee expenses, Profit before tax and depreciation of listed companies deflated by appropriate price indices has been used to extrapolate the corporate sector estimates of the same quarter of the previous year.

 

Agriculture, forestry and fishing

5.1       Quarterly GVA at basic prices for Q2 of 2016-17 from ‘agriculture, forestry and fishing’ sector grew by 3.3 percent as compared to growth of 2.0 percent in Q2 2015-16. According  to the information  furnished  by  the  Department  of  Agriculture  and Cooperation  (DAC),  which  has been  used  in  compiling  the  estimate  of  GVA from agriculture in Q2 of  2016-17, the production of  food grains  during  the  Kharif  season of agriculture year 2016-17 was 8.9 percent as compared to decline of 3.2 percent during the same period in 2015-16.  Around 51.0 percent of GVA of this sector is based on the livestock products, forestry and fisheries, which registered a combined growth of around 3.6 percent in Q2 of 2016-17.

 

Mining and quarrying

5.2.      Quarterly GVA at basic prices for Q2 of 2016-17 from ‘mining and quarrying’ sector declined  by (-) 1.5 percent as compared to growth of 5.0 percent in Q2 of 2015-16. As per the available information, private corporate sector growth in the mining sector as estimated for major listed companies at current prices is (-)1.1 percent in Q2 of 2016-17. The key indicators of mining sector, namely, production of coal, crude oil , natural gas and IIP mining registered growth rates of -3.5 per cent, -3.3 percent, -2.8 percent and -2.7 percent respectively during  Q2 of 2016-17 as compared to 0.9 percent, 1.7 percent, 0.03 percent and 3.1 percent respectively in Q2 of 2015-16. 

 

Manufacturing

5.3       Quarterly GVA at basic prices for Q2 of 2016-17 from ‘manufacturing’ sector grew by 7.1 percent as compared to growth of 9.2 percent in Q2 of 2015-16. The private corporate sector growth (which has a share of over 70 percent in the manufacturing sector) as estimated from available data of listed companies with BSE and NSE is 11.9 percent at current prices during Q2 of 2016-17. The growth in quasi - corporate and unorganized segment (which includes individual proprietorships and partnerships and khadi & village Industries has a share of around 22 percent in the manufacturing sector) has been estimated using IIP of manufacturing. IIP manufacturing registered growth rate of (-) 0.9 percent during Q2 of 2016-17 as compared to 4.7 percent in Q2 of 2015-16.

 

Electricity, Gas, water supply and other utility services

 

5.4       Quarterly GVA at basic prices for  Q2 of 2016-17 from  ‘Electricity, Gas, water supply and other utility services’  sector  grew by 3.5 percent as compared to growth of 7.5 percent in Q2 of 2015-16.   The key indicator of this sector, namely, IIP of Electricity registered growth rate of 1.4 percent during Q2 of 2016-17 as compared to 6.8 percent in Q2 of 2015-16.

 

Construction

5.5       Quarterly GVA at basic prices for Q2 of 2016-17 from ‘Construction’ sector grew by 3.5 percent as compared to growth of 0.8 percent in Q2 of 2015-16. Key indicators of construction sector, namely, production of cement and consumption of finished steel registered growth rates of 3.3 percent and 4.8 percent respectively during Q2 of 2016-17.

 

 Trade, hotels and Transport & communication and services related to broadcasting

5.6.                        Quarterly GVA at basic prices for Q2 of 2016-17 from this sector grew by 7.1 percent as compared to growth of 6.7 percent in Q2 of 2015-16. Key indicator used for estimating GVA from Trade sector is the sales tax growth.  As per the available monthly data on state accounts available from CAG website, sales tax collection grew by 13.1 percent during Q2 of 2016-17.  Among the other services sectors, the key indicators of railways, namely, the net tonne kilometres and passenger kilometres have shown growth rate of (-) 8.1 per cent and 0.4 percent respectively during Q2 of 2016-17.  In case of other transport sectors, passengers handled by the civil aviation, cargo handled by the civil aviation and cargo handled at major ports registered growth rates of 21.1 percent, 8.1 percent and 4.1 percent, respectively, during Q2 of  2016-17.

 

Financial, insurance, real estate and professional services

5.7       Quarterly GVA at basic prices for Q2 of 2016-17 from this sector grew 8.2 percent as compared to growth of 11.9 percent in Q2 of 2015-16.  Major component of this industry is the real estate and professional services which has a share of 76 percent. The key indicators of this sector are the quarterly growth of corporate sector for real estate sector and computer related activities which as estimated from available data from listed companies at current prices are (-)2.0 percent and 7.8 percent, respectively, during Q2 of 2016-17. The other indicators of this sector, viz., aggregate bank deposits and bank credits have shown growth rates of 11.3 per cent, and 10.4 per cent, respectively as on September 2016 as against growth of  10.6 percent and 9.1 percent respectively  as on September 2015.

 

Public administration and defence and other services

5.8       Quarterly GVA at basic prices for Q2 of 2016-17 from this sector grew by 12.5 percent as compared to growth of 6.9 percent in Q2 of 2015-16. The key indicator of this sector namely, Union Government expenditure, net of interest payments and subsidies, grew by 20.8 percent during Q2 of 2016-17 as compared to 1.1 percent in Q2 of 2015-16.

 

(b)   At current prices

 

6.         GDP is derived by adding taxes on products, net of subsidies on products, to GVA at basic prices. Growth in collection of Union Excise duties, customs duties and service tax was 40.7 percent, (-)5.2 percent and 19.2 percent respectively in  Q2 of 2016-17. GDP at current prices in Q2 of 2016-17 is estimated at `36.43 lakh crore, as against `32.49 lakh crore in Q2 of 2015-16, showing a growth rate of 12.1 percent. GVA at basic price at current prices in Q2 of 2016-17, is estimated at `33.42 lakh crore, as against `30.02 lakh crore in Q2 of 2015-16, showing an increase of 11.3 per cent.

 

(c)  Price indices used as deflators

7.         The wholesale price index (WPI), in respect of the groups - food articles, minerals, manufactured products and all commodities, has registered a growth of 9.0 per cent, (-)10.2 percent, 2.3 per cent, and 3.7 percent respectively whereas electricity declined by 2.8 percent during Q2 of 2016-17 over Q2 of 2015-16. The consumer price index has shown a rise of 5.2 per cent during Q2 of 2016-17 over Q2 of 2015-16.

 

II. ESTIMATES OF EXPENDITURES ON GDP

8.                                    The components of expenditure on gross domestic product, namely, consumption expenditure and capital formation, are normally measured at market prices.  The aggregates presented in the following paragraphs, therefore, are in terms of market prices.

 

Private Final Consumption Expenditure

9.                                    Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at current prices is estimated at `21.78 lakh crore in Q2 of 2016-17 as against `19.37 lakh crore in Q2 of 2015-16.  At constant (2011-12) prices, the PFCE is estimated at `16.26 lakh crore in Q2 of 2016-17 as against `15.11 lakh crore in Q2 of 2015-16. In terms of GDP, the rates of PFCE at current and constant (2011-2012) prices during Q2 of 2016-17 are estimated at 59.8 per cent and 54.9 per cent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 59.6 per cent and 54.7 per cent, respectively in Q2 of 2015-16. Growth rates of PFCE at current and constant prices are estimated at 12.4 percent and 7.6 percent during Q2 of 2016-17 as compared to 9.5 percent and 6.3 percent respectively during Q2 of 2015-16.

 

Government Final Consumption Expenditure

10.       Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE) at current prices is estimated at `5.15 lakh crore in Q2 of 2016-17 as against `4.27 lakh crore in Q2 of 2015-16. At constant (2011-2012) prices, the GFCE is estimated at `3.84 lakh crore in Q2 of 2016-17 as against `3.33 lakh crore in Q2 of 2015-16. In terms of GDP, the rates of GFCE at current and constant (2011-2012) prices during Q2 of 2016-17 are estimated at 14.1 per cent and 13.0 per cent, respectively, as against the corresponding rate of 13.1 per cent and 12.1 percent each in Q2 of 2015-16. Growth rates of GFCE at current and constant prices are estimated at 20.8 percent and 15.2 percent respectively during Q2 of 2016-17 as compared to 5.8 percent and 3.3 percent respectively during Q2 of 2015-16.

 

 

Gross Fixed Capital Formation

11.       Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) at current prices is estimated at `9.86 lakh crore in Q2 of 2016-17 as against `10.19 lakh crore in Q2 of 2015-16. At constant (2011-2012) prices, the GFCF is estimated at `8.58 lakh crore in Q2 of 2016-17 as against `9.09 lakh crore in Q2 of 2015-16. In terms of GDP, the rates of GFCF at current and constant (2011-2012) prices during Q2 of 2016-17 are estimated at 27.1 per cent and 29.0 per cent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 31.4 per cent and 32.9 per cent respectively in Q2 of 2015-16. Growth rates of GFCF at current and constant prices are estimated at (-) 3.2 percent and (-) 5.6 percent during Q2 of 2016-17 as compared to 7.5 percent and 9.7percent during Q2 of 2015-16.

 

12.       Estimates of GVA at basic price by kind of economic activity and the Expenditures on GDP for Q2 and  during April-September of 2014-15, 2015-16 and 2016-17 at constant (2011-12) and current prices, are given in Statements 1 to 8.

 

13.       The next release of quarterly GDP estimate for the quarter October-December, 2016 (Q3 of 2016-17) will be on 28.02.2017.

 

STATEMENT 1: QUARTERLY ESTIMATES OF GVA AT BASIC PRICES  

IN Q2 (JULY-SEPTEMBER) OF 2016-17

(at 2011-12 prices)
 

Industry  

(`in crore)

Percentage change

GVA at Basic Price

over previous year

2014-15

2015-16

2016-17

2015-16

2016-17

Q1

Q2

Q1

Q2

Q1

Q2

Q1

Q2

Q1

Q2

1.agriculture,forestry&fishing

358482

293560

367623

299531

374390

309538

2.6

2.0

1.8

3.3

2.mining&quarrying

79708

60841

86444

63854

86091

62922

8.5

5.0

-0.4

-1.5

3.manufacturing

418682

414049

449280

452062

490164

484150

7.3

9.2

9.1

7.1

4.electricity,gas,watersupply & other utility services

54853

54845

57037

58942

62378

60994

4.0

7.5

9.4

3.5

5.construction

213576

209577

225637

211298

229092

218676

5.6

0.8

1.5

3.5

6. trade, hotel, transport, communication & services related to broadcasting

439474

439818

483238

469191

522610

502432

10.0

6.7

8.1

7.1

7.financial, insurance, real estate &professional services

531933

584292

581471

653971

635963

707612

9.3

11.9

9.4

8.2

8.Public administration, defence& other services

283826

321195

300705

343247

337630

386196

5.9

6.9

12.3

12.5

GVA at Basic Price

2380534

2378178

2551435

2552095

2738318

2732519

7.2

7.3

7.3

7.1

 

 

STATEMENT 2: QUARTERLY ESTIMATES OF EXPENDITURES OF GDP

 IN Q2 (JULY-SEPTEMBER) OF 2016-17

(at 2011-12 prices)

 

Item

(`in crore)

RATES OF GDP AT MARKET PRICES (%)

Expenditures of Gross Domestic Product

2014-15

2015-16

2016-17

2015-16

2016-17

Q1

Q2

Q1

Q2

Q1

Q2

Q1

Q2

Q1

Q2

1.     Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE)

1406817

1422029

1504442

1511464

1605527

1625619

55.2

54.7

55.0

54.9

2.     Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE)

294338

322557

293720

333116

349059

383906

10.8

12.1

12.0

13.0

3.     Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF)

832420

828754

891627

909117

863956

858337

32.7

32.9

29.6

29.0

4.     Change in Stocks

48976

48434

50754

51068

54345

53462

1.9

1.8

1.9

1.8

5.     Valuables

42871

38194

43138

42932

22129

22756

1.6

1.6

0.8

0.8

6.     Exports

620869

625875

585324

599264

604052

601193

21.5

21.7

20.7

20.3

7.     Less Imports

661700

681230

645577

677465

607953

616498

23.7

24.5

20.8

20.8

8.     Discrepancies

-49687

-36835

761

-7146

26232

34059

0.0

-0.3

0.9

1.1

 GDP

2534903

2567778

2724188

2762350

2917348

2962834

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

GDP (Percentage change over previous year)

 

 

7.5

7.6

7.1

7.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

STATEMENT 3: QUARTERLY ESTIMATES OF GVA AT BASIC PRICES

IN Q2 (JULY-SEPTEMBER) OF 2016-17

(at current prices)

 

Industry  

(`in crore)

Percentage change

GVA at Basic Price

over previous year

2014-15

2015-16

2016-17

2015-16

2016-17

Q1

Q2

Q1

Q2

Q1

Q2

Q1

Q2

Q1

Q2

1.agriculture,forestry&fishing

440336

381132

466308

387595

504381

431548

5.9

1.7

8.2

11.3

2.mining&quarrying

91393

68668

96870

68781

97614

70200

6.0

0.2

0.8

2.1

3.manufacturing

463326

461155

494225

494597

545229

541919

6.7

7.3

10.3

9.6

4.electricity,gas,watersupply & other utility services

72870

72802

77069

82772

85190

83298

5.8

13.7

10.5

0.6

5.construction

251972

251830

260151

242294

267375

260097

3.2

-3.8

2.8

7.3

6. trade, hotel, transport, communication & services related to broadcasting

515657

525519

555922

536937

608714

594979

7.8

2.2

9.5

10.8

7.financial, insurance, real estate &        professional services

618229

692696

660964

740485

731238

830795

6.9

6.9

10.6

12.2

8.Public administration, defence& other services

349424

405492

390350

448645

460094

529268

11.7

10.6

17.9

18.0

GVA at Basic Price

2803207

2859293

3001859

3002105

3299835

3342103

7.1

5.0

9.9

11.3

 

 

 

STATEMENT 4: QUARTERLY ESTIMATES OF EXPENDITURES OF GDP 

IN Q2 (JULY-SEPTEMBER) OF 2016-17

(at current prices)

 

Item

(`in crore)

RATES OF GDP AT MARKET PRICES (%)

Expenditures of Gross Domestic Product

2014-15

2015-16

2016-17

2015-16

2016-17

Q1

Q2

Q1

Q2

Q1

Q2

Q1

Q2

Q1

Q2

1.     Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE)

1701060

1768531

1898161

1936782

2119544

2177808

59.8

59.6

60.5

59.8

2.     Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE)

353530

403302

364372

426564

452915

515228

11.5

13.1

12.9

14.1

3.     Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF)

940407

948182

1004712

1019137

993514

986286

31.6

31.4

28.3

27.1

4.     Change in Stocks

55371

55112

58099

58142

64223

63767

1.8

1.8

1.8

1.8

5.     Valuables

47668

42468

46526

46304

24512

27236

1.5

1.4

0.7

0.7

6.     Exports

706261

726455

665872

681643

701942

709357

21.0

21.0

20.0

19.5

7.     Less Imports

799914

840101

759491

796865

732701

753834

23.9

24.5

20.9

20.7

8.     Discrepancies

-87827

-50952

-103605

-123138

-118497

-82880

-3.3

-3.8

-3.4

-2.3

GDP

2916556

3052996

3174645

3248569

3505453

3642969

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

GDP (Percentage change over previous year)

 

 

8.8

6.4

10.4

12.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

STATEMENT 5: ESTIMATES OF GVA AT BASIC PRICES IN H1

(APRIL-SEPTEMBER) OF 2016-17

(at 2011-12 prices)

 

APRIL-SEPTEMBER (H1)

 

(`in crore)

Percentage change

Industry

GVA at Basic Price in H1

Over previous year H1

 

2014-15

2015-16

2016-17

2015-16

2016-17

1. agriculture, forestry & fishing

652042

667154

683928

2.3

2.5

2.mining&quarrying

140549

150298

149013

6.9

-0.9

3.manufacturing

832732

901342

974314

8.2

8.1

4.electricity,gas,watersupply & other utility services

109698

115979

123372

5.7

6.4

5.construction

423152

436935

447767

3.3

2.5

6. trade, hotel, transport, communication & services related to broadcasting

879292

952429

1025042

8.3

7.6

7.financial, insurance, real estate &    professional services

1116225

1235442

1343575

10.7

8.8

8.Public administration, defence & other services

605022

643951

723826

6.4

12.4

GVA at Basic Price

4758712

5103531

5470836

7.2

7.2

 

 

 

STATEMENT 6: ESTIMATES OF EXPENDITURES OF GDP IN H1

(APRIL-SEPTEMBER) OF 2016-17

(at 2011-12 prices)

 

APRIL-SEPTEMBER (H1)

 

(`. in crore)

Rates of GDP at market prices (%)

Item

Expenditures of Gross Domestic Product in H1

in H1

 

2014-15

2015-16

2016-17

2015-16

2016-17

1.    Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE)

2828846

3015906

3231147

55.0

54.9

2.    Government Final Consumption Expenditure

616896

626837

732964

11.4

12.5

3.    Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF)

1661174

1800744

1722294

32.8

29.3

4.    Change in Stocks

97409

101821

107807

1.9

1.8

5.  Valuables

81065

86070

44886

1.6

0.8

6.    Exports

1246743

1184588

1205245

21.6

20.5

7.    Less Imports

1342930

1323042

1224450

24.1

20.8

8.    Discrepancies

-86522

-6386

60290

-0.1

1.0

GDP

5102681

5486538

5880182

100.0

100.0

GDP (Percentage change over previous year)

 

7.5

7.2

 

 

 

 

STATEMENT 7: ESTIMATES OF GVA AT BASIC PRICES IN H1

                                                   (APRIL-SEPTEMBER) OF 2016-17

(at current prices)

 

APRIL-SEPTEMBER (H1)

 

(` in crore)

Percentage change

Industry

GVA at Basic Price in H1

over previous year H1

 

2014-15

2015-16

2016-17

2015-16

2016-17

1.agriculture,forestry&fishing

821468

853903

935928

3.9

9.6

2.mining&quarrying

160061

165651

167814

3.5

1.3

3.manufacturing

924481

988822

1087147

7.0

9.9

4.electricity,gas,watersupply & other utility services

145672

159841

168488

9.7

5.4

5.construction

503802

502446

527472

-0.3

5.0

6. trade, hotel, transport, communication & services related to broadcasting

1041175

1092858

1203693

5.0

10.1

7.financial, insurance, real estate &    professional services

1310925

1401449

1562034

6.9

11.5

8.Public administration, defence& other services

754916

838996

989362

11.1

17.9

GVA at Basic Price

5662500

6003965

6641938

6.0

10.6

 

 

STATEMENT 8: ESTIMATES OF EXPENDITURES OF GDP IN H1

(APRIL-SEPTEMBER) OF 2016-17

(at current prices)

 

APRIL-SEPTEMBER (H1)

 

(` in crore)

Rates of GDP at market prices (%)

Item

Expenditures of Gross Domestic Product in H1

in H1

 

2014-15

2015-16

2016-17

2015-16

2016-17

1.    Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE)

3469591

3834944

4297353

59.7

60.1

2.    Government Final Consumption Expenditure

756832

790936

968143

12.3

13.5

3.    Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF)

1888589

2023848

1979801

31.5

27.7

4.    Change in Stocks

110483

116241

127990

1.8

1.8

5.  Valuables

90135

92829

51748

1.4

0.7

6.    Exports

1432716

1347514

1411299

21.0

19.7

7.    Less Imports

1640015

1556357

1486535

24.2

20.8

8.    Discrepancies

-138779

-226743

-201377

-3.5

-2.8

GDP

5969552

6423214

7148422

100.0

100.0

GDP (Percentage change over previous year)

 

7.6

11.3

 

 

H1: April- September

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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