Provisional Estimates of Annual National Income, 2014-15 and Quarterly Estimates of Gross Domestic Product, 2014-15

The Central Statistics Office (CSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, has released the provisional estimates of national income for the financial year 2014-15 and  quarterly estimates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the fourth quarter (January-March) of 2014-15, both at constant (2011-12) and current prices.

 

2.         The CSO has also released the corresponding annual and quarterly estimates of expenditure components of the GDP in current and constant (2011-12) prices, namely the private final consumption expenditure, government final consumption expenditure, gross fixed capital formation, change in stocks, valuables, and net exports.

 

3.         GDP growth rates for 2014-15 and Q1,Q2,Q3 and Q4 of 2014-15 at constant (2011-12) and current prices are given below:

 

Growth Rates of GDP

 

Constant prices(2011-12)

Current prices

Annual2014-15 P((pROVISION

7.3

10.5

Q1 2014-15(April-June)

6.7

13.4

Q2 2014-15 (July-Sep)

8.4

13.6

Q3 2014-15 (Oct-Dec)

6.6

8.1

Q4 2014-15 (Jan-Mar)

7.5

7.7

 

Estimates including growth rates for Q1, Q2 and Q3 released earlier have been revised according to the revision policy of this Ministry.

 

I.        PROVISIONAL ESTIMATES OF NATIONAL INCOME, 2014-15

 

4.      The advance estimates of national income for the year 2014-15 were released on 9th February, 2015. These estimates have now been revised incorporating latest estimates of agricultural production, index of industrial production and performance of key sectors like, railways, transport other than railways, communication, banking, insurance and government expenditure. Early results on the performance of corporate sector for April-Dec 2014 which were used in the advance estimates have been revised on the basis of latest available information. The information on corporate performance as available from company finance studies of RBI supplemented with the information available from advance filings with Bombay Stock Exchange and National Stock Exchange.

                                                                                                                                

5.               The salient features of these estimates are detailed below:

 

(a)   Estimates at constant (2011-12) prices

 

Gross Domestic Product

 

6.       Real GDP or GDP at constant (2011-12) prices in the year 2014-15 is now estimated at `106.44lakhcrore (as against `106.57lakhcrore estimated earlier on 9th February, 2015), showing a growth rate of 7.3percent(as against 7.4 percent estimated earlier) over the New Series/First RevisedEstimates of GDP for the year 2013-14of `99.21lakh crore, released on 30th January 2015. 

 

Gross Value Added (GVA)at Basic Prices

7.      Real GVA, i.e, GVA at basic constant prices (2011-12)in the year 2014-15 is now estimated at `98.27 lakh crore (as against `98.58 lakh crore estimated earlier on 9th February, 2015), showing a growth rate of 7.2 percent(as against 7.5 percent estimated earlier) over the New Series/First Revised Estimates of GDP for the year 2013-14 of`91.70 lakh crore, released on 30th January 2015.

 

8.    The sectors which registered growth rate of over 7.0 percent are ‘trade, hotels, transport,communication and services related to broadcasting’,  'financial, real estate and professional services', ‘electricity, gas, water supply& other utility services, 'public administration, defence and other services’ and‘manufacturing’ The growth in the ‘agriculture, forestry and fishing’, ‘mining and quarrying’ and ‘construction’ is estimated to be 0.2 per cent, 2.4 per cent and4.8 per cent respectively.

 

Agriculture

 

9.         In the agriculture sector, the third advance estimates of crop production released by the Ministry of Agriculture showed downward revision as compared to their second advance estimates in food grain production (251.12 million Tonnes from 257.07million Tonnes)for the year 2014-15 registering a decline of 2.3 percent as compared to second advance estimates and decline of 5.4 percent as compared to the final estimates of 2013-14. According to the second advance estimate of horticulture crops, fruits and vegetables registered growth of 2.1 percent. Due to this revision in the production, ‘agriculture, forestry and fishing’ sector in 2014-15 has shown a growth rate of 0.2 percent, as against the growth rate of 1.1percent in the Advance estimates.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Industry

10.       In the case of ‘mining and quarrying’, the Index of Industrial Production of mining registered growth of 1.4percent during 2014-15as against estimated growth rate of 1.3percentused for compiling  Advance Estimates.Production of coal and crude oil registered growth rates of 8.2percent and (-)0.9percent in whole year of 2014-15 as compared to growth rates of 9.1 percent and (-) 0.9 percentduring April to December, 2014.The growth of ‘mining &quarrying’ is now estimated at 2.4 percent, as against the Advance Estimate growth of 2.3 percent.

 

11.       Similarly, the IIP of manufacturing registered a growth rate of 2.3percent during the whole year of 2014-15, as against the estimated growth rate of 1.6percentfor compiling Advance Estimates. Due to this change, the growth of ‘manufacturing’ sector is now estimated at 7.1percent, as against the Advance Estimate growth of 6.8percent. In addition, the corporate performance of the manufacturing sector has also been taken into account.

 

12.       The key indicators of construction sector, namely, cement and consumption of finished steel registered growth of 5.6percent and 3.1 percent, respectively in 2014-15as against 7.9percent and 1.5percent, respectively during April-December 2014. Consequently, the growth of the sector is revised to 4.8 percent as against 4.5 percent in the Advance Estimates.

 

Services

13.       The ‘Trade, hotels, transport, communicationandservices related to broadcasting sectors’ have registered a growth of 10.7 percent in 2014-15 as against 8.4 percent in the advance estimate released in February, 2015.In this sector, the sale of commercial vehicles, cargo handled at major sea ports, cargo handled by the civil aviation and passengers handled by the civil aviation registered growth rates of (-) 2.8per cent, 4.7 percent, 7.0 per cent and 12.2 per cent respectively during April-March of 2014-15 against (-)5.7 percent, 5.0 percent, 8.1 percent, 10.6 percent in the advance estimates. The sales tax collection during 2014-15 registered growth of 9.3 percent. Indicators of Railways sector, namely, Net Tonne Kilometers and Passenger Kilometers have shown growth of 5.2 and 2.7 percent respectively during 2014-15 as against 5.8 and 2.7 percent in the advance estimates. Further, private corporate sector registered significant growth in the tradeand communication sector during 2014-15.

 

14.       The sector, 'financial, real estate and professional services', has shown a growth rate of 11.5 per cent during 2014-15 as compared to growth rate of13.7  per cent in the advance estimates.The key indicators of banking, namely, aggregate bank deposits and bank credits have shown growth of 10.9percent and 9.2percent, respectively as on 31stMarch,2015 corresponding to 31st March,2014, as compared to growth of 11.5percent and 10.5 percent respectively used in advance estimates.

 

15.       The sector Public administration, defence and other services' has shown a growth rate of 7.2 per cent in the provisional  estimates, as against the growth rate of  9.0 per cent in the advance estimates, mainly due to  fall in total expenditure of Central Government than anticipated. The Central Government revenue expenditure net of interest payments showed anincrease of8.5 per centduring April-Dec 2014-15 which was used for estimation in the advance estimates, whereas during April-2014-March 2015,Central Government revenue expenditure net of interest payments showed an increase of only 5.6 per cent.

 

Gross National Income

 

16.      The Gross National Income (GNI) at 2011-12 prices is now estimated at `105.13lakh crore (as compared to `105.28 lakh crore estimated on 9th February 2015), during 2014-15, as against the previous year’s New Series/First Revised Estimate of `98lakh crore. In terms of growth rates, the gross national income is estimated to have risen by 7.3percent during 2014-15, in comparison to the growth rate of 6.8 percent in 2013-14.

 

Per Capita Net National Income

 

17.       The per capita net national income in real terms (at 2011-12 prices) during 2014-15 is estimated to have attained a level of `74104 (as against `74193 estimated on 9th February, 2015), as compared to the New Series/First Revised Estimates for the year 2013-14 of `69959. The growth rate in per capita income is estimated at5.9 percent during 2014-15 as against 5.4percent during 2013-14.

 

(b) Estimates at current prices

 

Gross Domestic Product

18.       GDP at current prices in the year 2014-15 is estimated at `125.41lakhcrore, showing a growth rate of 10.5percent over the New Series/First RevisedEstimates of GDP for the year 2013-14 of `113.45lakhcrore, released on 30th January 2015.

 

Gross National Income

 

19.       The GNI atcurrent prices is now estimated at `123.84 lakh crore during 2014-15, as compared to`112.05lakh crore during 2013-14, showing a rise of 10.5percent.

 

Per Capita Net National Income

20.       The per capita income at current prices during 2014-15 is estimated to have attained a level of `87748 as compared to the New Series/First RevisedEstimates for the year 2013-14 of `80388 showing a rise of 9.2percent.

 

21   The wholesale price index (WPI), in respect of the groups, food articles, manufactured products, electricity and all commodities, has risen by 6.1 per cent, 2.4 per cent, 5.7 per cent and 2.0 per cent, respectively during 2014-15 . The WPI of minerals has declined by 10.7 percent during 2014-15. The consumer price index has shown a rise of 6.4 per cent during 2014-15.

II        ANNUAL ESTIMATES OF EXPENDITURES ON GDP, 2014-15

 

22        Along with the ProvisionalEstimates of GDP by economic activity, the CSO is also releasing the estimates of expenditures of the GDP at current and constant (2011-12) prices. These estimates have been compiled using the data on indicators available from the same sources as those used for compiling GDP estimates by economic activity, detailed data available on merchandise trade in respect of imports and exports, balance of payments, and monthly expenditure of Central Government. As various components of expenditure on gross domestic product, namely, consumption expenditure and capital formation are discussed in the following paragraphs.

 

Private Final Consumption Expenditure

 

23.       Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at current prices is estimated at `75.34lakhcrore in 2014-15 as against `67.72lakhcrore in 2013-14. At constant (2011-12) prices, the PFCE is estimated at `60.64lakhcrore in 2014-15 as against `57.04lakhcrore in 2013-14. In terms of GDP, the rates of PFCE at current and constant (2011-12) prices during 2014-15 are estimated at 60.1percent and 57.0percent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 59.7percent and 57.5percent, respectively in 2013-14.

 

Government Final Consumption Expenditure

 

24.       Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE) at current prices is estimated at `14.32 lakh crore in 2014-15 as against `12.77 lakh crore in 2013-14. At constant (2011-12) prices, the GFCE is estimated at `11.58 lakh crore in 2014-15as against `10.86 lakh crore in 2013-14. In terms of GDP, the rates of GFCE at current and constant (2011-12) prices during 2014-15are estimated at 11.4 percent and 10.9 percent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 11.3percent and 10.9percent, respectively in 2013-14.

 

Gross Fixed Capital Formation

 

25        Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) at current prices is estimated at `36.02 lakh crore in 2014-15 as against ` 33.68 lakh crore in 2013-14. At constant (2011-12) prices, the GFCF is estimated at `31.92 lakh crore in 2014-15 as against `30.50 lakh crore in 2013-14. In terms of GDP, the rates of GFCF at current and constant (2011-12) prices during 2014-15 are estimated at 28.7 percent and 30.0 percent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 29.7percent and 30.7 percent, respectively in 2013-14. The rates of Change in Stocks and Valuables at current prices during 2014-15 are estimated at 1.5 percent and 1.4 percent, respectively.

 

26.       The rates of discrepancies at current and constant (2011-12) prices during 2014-15 are estimated at (-)0.8percent and 0.4 percent, respectively of the GDP, as against the corresponding rate of(-)0.5percentand (-)0.3percentrespectively in 2013-14.

 

27.       Estimates of gross/net national income and per capita income, along with GVA at basic prices by kind of economic activity and the Expenditures on GDP for the years 2012-13, 2013-14 and 2014-15 at constant (2011-12) and current prices are given in Statements 1 to 4.

 

 

 

 

 

III      QUARTERLY ESTIMATES OF GDP FOR Q4 (JANUARY-MARCH), 2014-15

 

(a) Estimates at constant (2011-12) prices

28.       The four quarters of a financial year are denoted by Q1, Q2, Q3 and Q4. GDP at constant (2011-12) prices in Q4 of 2014-15 is estimated at `28.74 lakh crore, as against `26.73 lakh  crore in Q4 of 2013-14, showing a growth rate of 7.5percent.  GVA at basic prices at constant (2011-12) prices in Q4 of 2014-15 is estimated at `25.33lakhcrore, as against `23.87 lakh  crore in Q4 of 2013-14, showing a growth rate of 6.1percent.

29.       Growth rates in various sectors are as follows: ‘agriculture, forestry and fishing’ (-1.4 percent), ‘mining and quarrying’ (2.3 percent), ‘manufacturing’ (8.4 percent), ‘electricity, gas, water supply and other utility services’ (4.2 percent) ‘construction’ (1.4 percent), 'trade, hotels, transport and communication' (14.1 percent), 'financial, real estate and professional services' (10.2 percent), and ‘Public administration, defence and other Services' (0.1percent).

 

30.       According to the latest estimates available on the IIP, the index of mining, manufacturing and electricity registered growth rates of 0.2 percent, 3.6 percent and 3.7 percent respectively, in Q4 of 2014-15, as compared to the growth rates of 1.8 percent, (-)1.6  percent and 7.6 percent respectively in these sectors in Q4, 2013-14.

 

31.       The key indicators of railways, namely, the net tonne kilometers and passenger kilometers have shown growth rates of 3.5 percent and 2.4 percent, respectively in Q4 of 2014-15, as against the growth rates 1.2 percent and 0.8 percent, in the corresponding period of previous year.  In the transport and communication sectors, the sale of commercial vehicles and cargo handled at major ports, registered growth rates of 3.5 percent and 4.4 percent respectively in Q4 of 2014-15 as compared to the growth rates of (-)24.1 percent and 1.3 percent respectively in these sectors in Q4, 2013-14. The Trade, hotels and transport sector have registered a growth of 14.1 percent in 2014-15 as against 9.9 percent in Q4 of 2013-14. Further, there was significant growth in the private corporate sector in the last quarter of 2014-15 in the case of trade and communication.  The sector Public administration, defence and other services'  has shown a growth rate of 0.1 per cent in Q4 of 2014-15  as against the growth rate of  2.4 per cent in  2013-14  mainly due to decrease in total expenditure of Central Government . The Central Government revenue expenditure net of interest payments showed a decline of 3.0 per cent during Q4 of 2014-15 as compared to 2013-14.

 

32. The PFCE and GFCF at constant (2011-12) prices in Q4 of 2014-15 are estimated at`15.95 lakh crore and `8.55 lakh crore, respectively. The rates of PFCE and GFCF as percentage of GDP in Q4 of 2014-15 were 55.5 percent and 29.7 percent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 55.3 percent and 30.7 percent, respectively in Q4 of 2013-14.

 

(b) Estimates at current prices

 

33.       GDP at current prices in Q4 of 2014-15 is estimated at `33.15lakh crore, as against `30.77 lakh crore in Q4 of 2013-14, showing a growth of 7.7 percent. GVA at current basic prices in Q4 of 2014-15 is estimated at `29.09 lakh crore, as against `27.44 lakh crore in Q4 of 2013-14, showing a growth of 6.0percent.

 

34.       The PFCE and GFCF at current prices in Q4 of 2014-15 are estimated at `19.80 lakh crore and `9.53lakhcrore, respectively. The rates of PFCE and GFCF at current prices as percentage of GDP in Q4 of 2014-15 are estimated at 59.7percent and 28.7 percent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 58.1 percent and 29.8 percent, respectively in Q4 of 2013-14.

 

35. The wholesale price index (WPI), in respect of the groups, food articles, manufactured products, electricity and all commodities, has risen by 7.4 per cent, 0.4 per cent, 2.1 per cent and (-)1.8 per cent, respectively during Q4 of 2014-15. The WPI of minerals has declined by 29.0 percent duringQ4 of 2014-15. The consumer price index has shown a rise of 5.4 per cent during Q4 of 2014-15.

36.       Estimates of GVA at basic prices by kind of economic activity and the Expenditures on GDP for the four quarters of 2012-13, 2013-14and 2014-15 at constant (2011-12) and current prices, are given in Statements 5 to 8.

 

37.       The next release of quarterly GDP estimate for the quarter April-June, 2015 (Q1 of 2015-16) will be on 28.08.2015.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

STATEMENT 1: Provisional Estimates of National Income and Expenditures on GDP, 2014-15 (At 2011- 12 Prices)

 

 

(` crore)

 

 

S. No.

Item

2012-13

 

(NS)

2013-14

2014-15

 

(PE)

percentage change over previous year

(NS)

2013-14

2014-15

 

Domestic Product

 

 

 

 

1

GVA at basic prices

8599224

9169787

9827089

6.6

7.2

2

Taxes on Products including import duties

978603

1037006

1096164

6.0

5.7

3

Less Subsidies on Products

297024

285687

279270

-3.8

-2.2

4

GDP (1+2-3)

9280803

9921106

10643983

6.9

7.3

5

NDP

8301305

8872127

9519811

6.9

7.3

 

Final Expenditures

 

 

 

 

6

PFCE

5370768

5704132

6064247

6.2

6.3

7

GFCE

1004155

1086121

1157810

8.2

6.6

8

   GFCF

2962726

3050236

3191973

3.0

4.6

9

   CIS

201262

158211

163998

-21.4

3.7

10

   VALUABLES

261353

133975

167884

-48.7

25.3

11

Exports of goods and services

2286611

2453005

2434350

7.3

-0.8

12

Less Imports of goods and services

2877291

2636313

2579770

-8.4

-2.1

13

Discrepancies

71219

-28262

43491

 

 

14

GDP

9280803

9921106

10643983

6.9

7.3

 

RATES TO GDP

 

 

 

 

 

15

PFCE

57.9

57.5

57.0

 

 

16

GFCE

10.8

10.9

10.9

 

 

17

   GFCF

31.9

30.7

30.0

 

 

18

   CIS

2.2

1.6

1.5

 

 

19

   VALUABLES

2.8

1.4

1.6

 

 

20

Exports of goods and services

24.6

24.7

22.9

 

 

21

Less Imports of goods and services

31.0

26.6

24.2

 

 

22

Discrepancies

0.8

-0.3

0.4

 

 

23

GDP

100.0

100.0

100.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

24

GNI

9172925

9800813

10513163

 

 

25

NNI

8193427

8751834

9388992

 

 

                  Per Capita Income, Product and Final Consumption

26

Population* (in million)

1235

1251

1267

1.3

1.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

27

Per Capita GDP

75148

79305

84009

5.5

5.9

28

Per Capita GNI

74275

78344

82977

5.5

5.9

29

Per Capita NNI

66344

69959

74104

5.4

5.9

30

Per Capita PFCE

43488

45597

47863

4.8

5.0

NS:New Series Estimates; PE: Provisional Estimates

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

STATEMENT 2: Provisional Estimates of National Income and Expenditures on GDP, 2014-15( At Current Prices)

 

 

(` crore)

 

 

S.No.

Item

2012-13

2013-14

2014-15

percentage change over previous year

 

 

(NS)

(NS)

(PE)

2013-14

2014-15

 

Domestic Product

 

 

 

 

1

GVA at basic prices

9252051

10477140

11550240

13.2

10.2

2

Taxes on Products including import duties

1057442

1197938

1329750

13.3

11.0

3

Less Subsidies on Products

320953

330022

338781

2.8

2.7

4

GDP (1+2-3)

9988540

11345056

12541208

13.6

10.5

5

NDP

8958496

10196410

11274915

13.8

10.6

 

Final Expenditures

 

 

 

 

6

PFCE

5875111

6772066

7534239

15.3

11.3

7

GFCE

1093130

1277467

1432070

16.9

12.1

8

   GFCF

3136364

3367856

3602121

7.4

7.0

9

   CIS

213719

176227

186674

-17.5

5.9

10

   VALUABLES

275497

145451

176432

-47.2

21.3

11

Exports of goods and services

2439707

2854713

2908176

17.0

1.9

12

Less Imports of goods and services

3108428

3190352

3199827

2.6

0.3

13

Discrepancies

63439

-58373

-98678

-0.5

-0.8

14

GDP

9988540

11345056

12541208

13.6

10.5

 

RATES TO GDP

 

 

 

 

15

PFCE

58.8

59.7

60.1

 

 

16

GFCE

10.9

11.3

11.4

 

 

17

   GFCF

31.4

29.7

28.7

 

 

18

   CIS

2.1

1.6

1.5

 

 

19

   VALUABLES

2.8

1.3

1.4

 

 

20

Exports of goods and services

24.4

25.2

23.2

 

 

21

Less Imports of goods and services

31.1

28.1

25.5

 

 

22

Discrepancies

0.6

-0.5

-0.8

 

 

23

GDP

58.8

59.7

60.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

24

GNI

9871777

11205169

12383908

13.5

10.5

25

NNI

8841733

10056523

11117615

13.7

10.6

26

GNDI

10221858

11601087

12788008

13.5

10.2

27

NNDI

9191814

10452441

11521715

13.7

10.2

                  Per Capita Income, Product and Final Consumption

28

Per Capita GDP

80879

90688

98983

12.1

9.1

29

Per Capita GNI

79933

89570

97742

12.1

9.1

30

Per Capita NNI

71593

80388

87748

12.3

9.2

31

Per Capita GNDI

82768

92735

100931

12.0

8.8

32

Per Capita PFCE

47572

54133

59465

13.8

9.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Note: Estimates of Disposable Income are compiled only at current prices.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NS: New Series Estimates; PE: Provisional Estimates

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

STATEMENT 3: Provisional Estimates of GVA at Basic Price by Economic Activity

(At 2011-12 prices)                   

Rs. Crore

Industry

2012-13

(NS) 

2013-14

(NS)

2014-15

(PE)

Percentage change over previous year

2013-14

2014-15

1. agriculture, forestry & fishing

1,523,470

1,579,290

1,582,851

3.7

0.2

2. mining & quarrying

262,253

276,380

283,062

5.4

2.4

3. manufacturing

1,574,471

1,658,176

1,776,469

5.3

7.1

4. electricity, gas, water supply & other utility services

202,224

211,846

228,579

4.8

7.9

5. construction

740,518

758,887

795,066

2.5

4.8

6.trade,hotels,transport,communication and services related to broadcasting

1,548,739

1,720,513

1,904,200

11.1

10.7

7. financial, real estate  & professional services

1,675,405

1,807,338

2,015,912

7.9

11.5

8. Public Administration, defence and other services

1,072,144

1,157,357

1,240,950

7.9

7.2

GVA at Basic Price

8,599,224

9,169,787

9,827,089

6.6

7.2

NS: New Series Estimates; PE: Provisional Estimates

 

 

STATEMENT 4: Provisional Estimates of GVA at Basic Priceby Economic Activity

(At current prices)

Rs. Crore

Industry

2012-13

(NS) 

2013-14

(NS)

2014-15

(PE)

Percentage change over previous year

2013-14

2014-15

1. agriculture, forestry & fishing

1,668,676

1,881,152

1,964,506

12.7

4.4

2. mining & quarrying

284,771

298,544

275,812

4.8

-7.6

3. manufacturing

1,654,084

1,808,370

1,984,173

9.3

9.7

4. electricity, gas, water supply & other utility services

213,826

244,220

278,593

14.2

14.1

5. construction

801,884

868,808

928,418

8.3

6.9

6.trade,hotels,transport,communication and services related to broadcasting

1,660,477

1,946,060

2,205,284

17.2

13.3

7. financial, real estate  & professional services

1,807,699

2,074,623

2,372,103

14.8

14.3

8. Public Administration, defence and other services

1,160,634

1,355,362

1,541,351

16.8

13.7

 GVA at Basic Price

9,252,051

10,477,140

11,550,240

13.2

10.2

NS: New Series Estimates; PE: Provisional Estimates



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